IF Ian Thorpe were almost any other swimmer, Australia’s head coach Alan Thompson would be preparing to write him off as a gold medal prospect at the next Olympics.

“For a normal person, he would be at that point now,” Thompson says. “But he’s not a normal person. He’s one of the greatest athletes we have seen.”

Australia’s greatest Olympian has not raced at international level since his Athens triumph almost two years ago. He took six months out of the pool completely, got back into shape late last year, then raced solidly at the NSW titles last December and the Commonwealth Games trials in February.

But then things went pear-shaped.

He contracted glandular fever in the lead-up to the Commonwealth Games and was forced to withdraw. He had just begun training again in May when he slipped in his bathroom and broke a bone in his hand.

Since then, he has twice put back his return to competition, first in Europe, then in the US, before deciding to skip town altogether and relocate temporarily to Los Angeles for three months, where he is training with highly regarded coach Dave Salo, the former mentor of Olympic champions Amanda Beard, Lenny Krayzelburg and Aaron Peirsol.

With each setback, each postponement, each avoidance, public fears have grown that he will never be as he was.

It now appears that Thorpe will not race until at least October or November in the lead-up to the national trials in December, the qualifying competition for the world championships in Melbourne.

If he does not qualify for Melbourne, he will have missed every major international competition between the two Olympics.

No reigning Olympic champion in the modern era has missed so many key events between Games and retained his supremacy four years later.

Eventually, even champions get so far away from the cutting edge that they cannot find their way back.

Of those who have tried, Ukrainian-born American backstroke king Lenny Krayzelburg went from three gold medals in Sydney to fourth in the 100m backstroke in Athens.

Kieren Perkins had won the past two 1500m freestyle Olympic gold medals when he went to Sydney but finished with silver as Grant Hackett usurped his crown. And Perkins only missed one year of competition before beginning his run to 2000.

He was back for the 1998 Commonwealth Games but says it took him three years to find his form. And in that time Hackett moved the event out of his reach.

“The longer you are away the longer it takes to get back,” Perkins says.

In hindsight, Perkins believes he overlooked the importance of performing well at interim championships between the Games and overestimated his ability to race well without that regular practice.

“I was only focused on Sydney and it made the job that much more difficult,” he says.

“Even if you are an experienced athlete, you need to actually do it (race). You need to test your body and mind in races so that when the time comes you will do it perfectly no matter how exhausted you are on the last lap.

“It’s very difficult to miss out on all that competition preparation. Getting fit is the easy part.

“I would never say that Ian can’t do it because he’s done a lot in the sport that people have thought he couldn’t do. But history tells us it’s pretty hard. Cathy Freeman couldn’t do it either.”

Aside from the pure determination to do the work, Perkins identifies two factors working against Thorpe.

One is that the sport keeps moving forward, while he is in reverse. The bronze medallist in Athens, Michael Phelps, is three years younger than Thorpe and has made gains over 200m freestyle that suggest that Thorpe may have to improve on his best to win in Beijing.

Then there is the insidious leaking away of desire once a highly trained, singularly focused athlete is exposed to the indulgences of normal life.

“When you are out of competition for so long you learn how the other half lives,” Perkins said.

“You quite easily convince yourself that it won’t have a huge impact if you go out for a night, or eat what you want, as long as you keep training.

“But when you look at it cumulatively, it has a profound effect on your preparation. Doing the little things along the way is integral to success. I didn’t put enough into the little things that bring the puzzle together.”

Perkins thinks that performing at the world championships in March will be pivotal if Thorpe is to maximise his chances of success in Beijing.

“I think he will make it very tough on himself if he’s not there — although he’s that good, he probably could do it,” he says. “But that is the one true indicator of how you are progressing. Doing it in training is one thing, but doing it in competition is another, and the world championships will be the last time before the Olympics that everyone will be at a peak.”

Thorpe intends to be there, according to Salo.

“He’s here to train in an environment with less exposure to the media, and to focus on the training,” Salo says from the University of Southern California. “He’s bent on getting fit and in shape.”

Thorpe only began training with Salo, whose coaching philosophy favours quality rather than quantity with a strong emphasis on technical skills, two weeks ago and intends to stay until the end of September, before returning to his Sydney coach Tracey Menzies.

The new coach is still working out where Thorpe is in terms of fitness. “His skills are superior to a lot of people’s, so it’s hard to say on his condition,” Salo explains. “But he seems to be happy to be out here where he’s not being hounded by reporters. We don’t have people hanging around the pool here. The anonymity for swimming athletes in the US is a lot better. He can go to the beach and no-one knows who he is.”

Yet another test for Thorpe is that his broken hand is still giving him difficulties.

“He’s getting some soreness in there, it’s more an issue in his dry-land training,” Salo confirms.

But even with everything that now stands against Thorpe in his quest for a third Olympic triumph, Thompson is still unwilling to bet against him.

“Every time there’s speculation about his future, he comes out and goes ‘whack’ in a race and he’s OK again,” Thompson says.

The speculation has intensified this time because Thorpe and his representatives have been increasingly difficult to contact in recent months and reluctant to answer questions about his progress.

He seems increasingly intolerant of the media circus that has surrounded him since he was a 15-year-old prodigy.

Thompson has complained about being unable to get a straight answer from the Thorpe camp.

But he still doesn’t doubt the swimmer’s commitment.

“I don’t think he would go through all this if he wasn’t planning to be the best he can be by Beijing, and Ian Thorpe at his best is a frightening athlete,” Thompson says.

“You don’t keep coming back as he has done this year if you don’t really want to do it. I have no doubt the desire is there.”